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The I-Mess…
When the going gets tough, who’s got your back? In the case of jettisoned talk radio host Don Imus, certainly not Harold Ford, Jr. or Mike Barnicle.
No one person on or off the air did more to help Harold Ford, Jr. try to win a senate seat than did Imus. And, as you are no doubt aware, the Imus in the Morning radio show and MSNBC simulcast have been taken off the air. Following the Imus lynching, I checked the Internet polls sponsored by NewsMax. NewsMax concluded that Americans overwhelmingly believe he should not have been fired. Asked if MSNBC overreacted by firing Imus, 88% said yes. As Pat Buchanan argues, not only did Imus contribute to the public policy, but his show was the best morning show on the air.
L.A. Times writer Peter Wallstein led with, “Democratic Politicians Lose a Soapbox with Firing of Don Imus.” Regarding Sen. Chris Dodd’s views on Imus in the Morning (Dodd announced his presidential candidacy on the show), P.W. writes, “He’s (Imus) got a huge audience, he gives you enough time to talk, not a 30-second bite, a chance to explain your views.” Wallstein correctly points out to his readers that Imus was a regular destination for the likes of Dodd, Harold Ford, Jr., Joe Lieberman (strongly supported by Imus and Dick Young), John Kerry, and John McCain.
It’s interesting to ponder the strange “Capus hypocrisy.” Steve Capus, the NBC News president that fired Imus with the view that “I can’t ignore the fact that there is a very long list of inappropriate comments, of inappropriate banter, and it has to stop,” is the very same not-so-thin-skinned or concerned guy who is responsible for NBC’s running the obscenely insensitive Virginia Tech disaster tapes. A number of family members of Virginia Tech victims decided not to appear on The Today Show because of their anger with NBC’s decision. Forensic psychiatrist Dr. Michael Wellner has asked NBC News and other outlets to “stop showing this video now,” referring to it as a “social catastrophe.” And to max out on its visibility, NBC placed its news logo and NBC peacock on videos and photos. Talk about inappropriate, Mr. Capus.
For a decade, I’ve regularly watched the first 45 minutes of Imus in the Morning. I’m certain I understand the show’s makeup as well as anyone alive does. No person or group has taken any worse verbal abuse from Don Imus than his own staff.
When I heard of the Imus firing, the first thing that hit me was who benefits here? The media guys who fired Don Imus know his shtick inside and out. After all, Imus had just signed a new five-year contract. A whole lot more was in play here than hurtful, stupid commentary by Imus. Well, it turns out that a left-of-center outfit called Media Matters for America apparently taped and distributed Imus’s inappropriate remarks and urged readers to contact MSNBC to take action. Media Matters for America, run by a questionable fellow named David Brock, is thought to receive funding through the so-called Democracy Alliance, which itself supposedly receives funding from George Soros. And what is M.M.’s rub with Don Imus? The group has been incensed by Imus’s ridicule of Hillary Clinton.
Piling on the disingenuous bandwagon, Barack Obama demanded that Imus be fired. This will turn out to be huge strategic blunder for Obama in his battle with the insufferable Clinton. Imus has been a huge help for many politicians, especially Joe Lieberman and John McCain. And the fact that Imus has been so candid and relentless in savaging the fading Clinton indicates the potential for Imus’s supporting Obama. No longer.
My Big Idea centers on mid-2008, as 76 million Americans begin to retire and, just months later, we have the 2008 presidential election. The fate of our economy and stock market will hang in the balance. Clinton is an anti-business, anti-growth candidate. At the winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee, Clinton said, “The oil companies reported the highest profits in the history of the world. I want to take those profits and I want to put them in an alternative energy fund.” If this idea weren’t so stupid, it would be scary.
Topping my list of concerns on behalf of all Americans are the U.S. tax structure and legal environment. History clearly shows the benefit from reduced taxes and a much less complicated legal system. And when looking at the legal system, the Second Amendment is a good place to start in terms of support for the type of politician and judge that has American freedom at heart.
I prefer not to tax personal and corporate income, interest, dividends, capital gains or estates. Rather, my target would be a two-stage consumption tax, with exceptions for (1) prescription drugs and (2) fresh food. I’d have a base tax on consumption somewhere in the 20% to 30% range and a kick-up rate in the 30% to 40% range for luxury items (i.e., Conde Nast Traveler, May 2007, p. 238). I like a theme that runs like this: Earn a lot/save a lot/pay a little (in taxes). What would follow? Earn a lot/spend a lot/pay a lot. Fair enough?
On the legal front, our system is an outright disgrace and an impediment to international competition. Have you read the details of the Duke Lacrosse players and their legal costs? It will sicken you. We need a loser-pays legal system and an end to punitive damages and class-action suits. Massive tort reform is imperative.
So exactly how should you improve your returns in the current low-growth, political-no-man’s-land environment? Here’s exactly what to do. First, flip to What’s Up on the back page of your Economic Analysis. Run your eye down the 2007 YTD returns, and read carefully my synopsis below the returns box. All set? Now you have some perspective as we move forward looking for the best moves to make today.
To make the best moves, you need a solid foundation on which to stand. Scan the two charts (#50 and #52) above What’s Up. I placed these two charts above What’s Up so that in a matter of 60 seconds you are completely focused on the basic investment tenet of diversification.
My charts are meant to reinforce your comfort in knowing that when stocks go down, conservative, blue-chip fixed-income, like intermediate Treasuries, usually go up in value. I also want to reinforce the concept that a conservative retirement portfolio will benefit from a 50% fixed-income component with few negative total return years. Properly counterbalanced investors give up some upside to hedge against unpleasing downside debacles. You are no doubt seasoned enough to remember the 1965–1981 period. This 16-year period ended with an actual decline in the Dow. Had a person retired in 1965 with a 100% stock portfolio, the results would have been potentially catastrophic. Do not assume you know what the future holds. My strategy has done a great job of protecting us both and avoiding disasters. I owe 100% of my lifelong investing strategy to inference reading. If you have followed my advice, you have benefited from my program over and over again and have had regular opportunities over the last three decades to make a whole lot of money with me.
Run down the “% Change Numbers” in What’s Up for 2005, 2006, and 2007. How many negatives do you see? How many huge gains? I own almost every name on that list. In that I tell you what I buy, you have had every chance to benefit right along with me. So how have we done? Check out just one of my most-often-advised funds and biggest holdings, Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining (VGPMX). VGPMX was up 43% in 2005 and 34% in 2006, and it is up 17% in just the first-quarter 2007. This platinum-dominated counterbalancer all alone has made you look like Richard Feynman. This month, I’m making substantial investments in (1) Dodge & Cox Balanced Fund (DODBX) (I love the D&C committee approach), (2) Fidelity International Real Estate (FIREX), (3) T. Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) (cheap currency and lots of takeover activity promise), (4) T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe & Mediterranean (TREMX) (heavy Russian exposure, and I like Russia over China, India, Brazil), and (5) iShares Singapore (EWS). Add or take new positions in each today.
With new money, the focal point of your investing should be alternatives to a structurally weak U.S. dollar. I have long advised precious metals shares. Once your precious metals component is maxed out, I want you to focus on currency investing. I am not talking about hyperactive, short-term currency trading in online accounts with 50-to-1 leverage here. I want you to take a long-term approach to currency investment. For most individual investors, I advise country-based exchange-traded funds and individual stocks.
When you invest internationally, currencies can be a source of profit or a source of pain. Too many investors venture beyond the U.S. without properly evaluating their currency exposure. International investment without proper currency evaluation is akin to crossing the street and only looking one way: You could get blindsided by a bus.
When Argentina revalued its currency in 2002, U.S. investors owning stocks in Argentina took a lashing of more than 50%. Citizens of Argentina, however, enjoyed an 80% gain on their investment. Developing countries are not the only countries susceptible to large currency fluctuations. In the late 1990s, the depreciation of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar turned a 60% return on Australian stocks into a 7% return for U.S. investors owning Australian stocks.
Just as a depreciating currency can zap the pizzazz out of an otherwise good investment idea, an appreciating currency can turn a good investment idea into a great investment idea. Take the U.K., for example. Since year-end 2002, the U.K. stock market is up 64%, but U.S. investors are up 104% in the same stocks over the same time period. An appreciating pound added another 40% to the returns of U.S. investors. The opportunity in currency investment is too important to ignore.
Young Research spends over $40,000 per year (and yes, the price keeps going up) on high-powered databases that include statistics on hundreds of thousands of economic and financial indicators. If you want to know the number of new housing starts in Chile, for example, we have it. How about the number of international sea arrivals into Thailand from China in December of last year? We have that, too. (The figure is 332 if you’re interested.) Young Research’s high-powered databases give me and our analysts the firepower to make leading-edge international recommendations with the facts and figures to back them up.
I first wrote about iShares Australia (EWA) in May 2005 when assets in the fund were just under $325 million. Today, iShares Australia manages $1.3 billion in assets. If you invested with me based on my initial recommendation, your early arrival earned you a return of over 60%. I first added iShares Singapore to my Monster Master list in February 2006 when fund’s assets totaled approximately $380 million. Today, iShares Singapore manages $1.8 billion. In just over one year, your early arrival in Singapore earned you more than 70%. I hope you did not miss the boat.
I look for undervalued currencies in countries with political stability, free markets, and a pro-growth-oriented government. I focus on long-term valuation here. I calculate relative purchasing power parities, evaluate currency reserves, and pay close attention to current-account balances.
As I mentioned earlier, I advise currency investment through country-based ETFs and individual stocks. Today, for maximum diversification away from the U.S. dollar, I want you to focus on the equity markets of Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, and Australia. This month, I will cover Japan, Singapore, Switzerland, and Canada. Next month, I will cover Sweden and Australia.
The yen is one of the most undervalued freely floating currencies in the world. The Economist does a semiannual survey of the cost of a McDonald’s Big Mac in 46 different countries to estimate currency values. This Economist’s survey is a nice back-of-the-matchbook indicator of currency values. In the latest survey, the yen comes up undervalued by 28% against the U.S. dollar.
The yen is deeply undervalued because it is a victim of the so-called “carry trade.” The carry trade is an investment strategy whereby leverage-seeking investors borrow yen at low interest rates and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding non-yen-denominated securities. The mechanics of the carry trade require investors to sell yen. The popularity of the investment strategy has been a force driving down the exchange rate value of Japan’s currency. The carry trade is akin to picking up nickels in front of a steam roller. You better not trip. The high risks of the carry trade make the speculators employing the strategy a trigger-happy bunch. The most minor event can send carry trade investors into a selling frenzy. I cannot tell you when the carry trade crowd will exit their trades, of course, but I can tell you that when the frenzy starts, the yen will soar.
My chart on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate shows you how quickly the yen can appreciate when the carry trade unwinds. In 1998, the last time the carry trade was unwound, the value of the yen appreciated by 22% versus the dollar in just 60 days. In 1998, the popularity of the carry trade was much lower than it is today. A swift and powerful move up in the yen is likely.
Even without an unwinding of the carry trade, Japanese equities offer relative value. If the carry trade continues to grow in popularity, the yen will continue to depreciate against the currencies of Japan’s major trading partners. Further depreciation in an already undervalued yen will be a windfall for Japanese exporters. Higher corporate profits and higher equity prices are likely in this scenario. I want you to buy T. Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) for your Japanese equities exposure.
A look in your National Geographic Family Reference shows that Singapore is the tiny little country located at the tip of the Malay Peninsula. In population, Singapore is about the size of Los Angeles, but in area, the country is half the size of L.A. A shortage of land has not prevented Singapore’s economic progress. The former British colony is a global electronics manufacturing base, a regional offshore financial center and home to the world’s busiest port.
Singapore is fast becoming the private banking hub for a growing class of Asian millionaires. Under management in Singapore is an estimated $250 billion in private banking assets, growing at rates of 15% to 30% annually. The private banking business in Singapore is so good that there is a shortage of trained relationship managers in the country. Some reports indicate that salaries for private bank relationship managers in Singapore exceed the salaries of private bankers in Switzerland.
Multinational corporations are attracted to Singapore’s generous tax incentives, educated workforce, low crime rate, and efficient infrastructure. This tiny Asian nation is ranked as the world’s easiest place to do business by the World Bank, and the Heritage Foundation counts Singapore as the world’s second-freest country.
With statistics and rankings as impressive as Singapore’s, does it surprise you that the country’s currency is undervalued? My PPP chart on the Singapore dollar compares the purchasing power value to the actual exchange rate of the Singapore dollar. Using export prices, the Singapore dollar is undervalued by 30% versus the U.S. dollar.
The opportunity to invest in Singapore while the currency is still cheap will not last forever. I expect the currency to appreciate against the U.S. dollar at an accelerating rate. After the discount to purchasing power parity is gone, you are unlikely to see the Singapore dollar trade at a discount anytime soon.
Our gateway to the Singapore dollar is my highly favored iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund, with an expense ratio of .54%. You are up 16% year-to-date and over 46% over the last year. I have recently added to my position, and I want you to be sure you have a full position in the Singapore dollar.
Jardine Matheson (US ADR: JMHLY), a Monster Master List holding, will also provide you with exposure to the Singapore dollar. Jardine is an Asian-based conglomerate with a hand in financial services, real estate, automobiles, tourism, and retail. If you are buying shares on the Singapore market, be sure to buy in round lots of 400. Singaporeans like odd lots about as much as they like graffiti! You won’t end up with welts on your back if you buy odd lots, but you will take a nice beating when you sell your odd-lot shares.
The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are in the same boat as funding currencies for the carry trade. When the global capital markets hit turbulence, there will be a flight to safety and an unwinding of the trade. Before the trade unwinds, I want you to have a position in both the yen and the franc.
Beyond a source of funding for the carry trade the Swiss franc is a safe-haven currency. During periods of geopolitical upheaval, the franc tends to outperform. In today’s world of geopolitical uncertainty, a safe-haven currency is a comfortable choice.
My chart on the current-account surplus of Switzerland shows the enviable position the country enjoys. Out of the 35 countries followed in the statistical pages of The Economist, Switzerland, in 2007, is projected to have the third-highest current- account surplus as a percentage of GDP. Singapore comes in at number one and Saudi Arabia, with a big benefit from oil, comes in at number two.
My chart on the PPP value of the Swiss franc shows the currency is trading around fair value. You can take a position in the Swiss franc with the iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund (EWL). Among the top 10 holdings of the Swiss fund are my favored Nestle (OTC: NSRGY), Syngenta (NYSE: SYT), and Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS). All three are on my Monster Master List.
If you are of substantial means and have the desire to do some traveling, I advise a trip to Switzerland to set up a private banking relationship. I prefer a smaller Swiss bank without lots of exposure to the U.S. You may want to set up meetings with, for example, Julius Baer, Vontobel, and Banque Privee Edmond de Rothschild.
If the global economy keeps booming, both the yen and franc are likely to depreciate against the U.S.$. To offset the weakness and to create a counterbalanced currency portfolio, I advise positions in natural-resource-rich Canada and Australia.
Canada is the forgotten stepchild in many global investment portfolios. The country is lumped in with the United States, but there are important differences. Canada is the second-biggest country on earth, the eighth-largest economy in the world, and a natural resources powerhouse. Canada is rich in timber, diamonds, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, and, the most valuable resource of the future, water. Canada is home to 20% of the world’s fresh water supply.
Canada’s tar sands are home to an estimated 1.7 trillion barrels of oil, more than 6X the reserves in Saudi Arabia. Using current technologies, recoverable reserves from tar sands are estimated at 300 billion barrels of oil.
Growing demand for natural resources from
Asia’s booming economies is certain to bode well
for Canada’s future economic prosperity, and strong economic growth leads to long-term currency
appreciation.
My chart on Canada’s budget and current-account positions shows further support for currency exposure to the Canadian dollar. Canada is the only big industrialized country to consistently run a budget and current-account surplus.
Fidelity Canada (FICDX) offers attractive Canadian dollar exposure. You can also buy one or more of the many Canadian names on my Monster Master List. For new money, I like Aber Diamond (NASDAQ: ABER), Alcan (NYSE: AL), and Bombardier (TORONTO: BBD.B).
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In order of preference and listed for you in my Top 10 Countdown, some stocks to add to your buy list today: (1) Plum Creek (NYSE: PCL) grows trees and gives you a nice 4.3% yield. PC has averaged an 11% total return over the last five years and, as my chart shows, has regained upside momentum. (2) Federated Investors (NYSE: FII) will be a huge benefactor in the once-in-a-lifetime shift to a fixed-income emphasis for millions of retiring baby boomers. (3) Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR). As my chart shows, the worm has turned for coal. (4) Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), looking like a takeover candidate, has formed a base for a new surge up. (5) Citigroup (NYSE: C), flat on its back in relative terms versus the S&P 500, has nowhere to go but up.
(6) General Electric (NYSE: GE). Not often can you invest in a AAA blue chip priced at such a steep discount to trend price. (7) Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Like GE, you can invest in a real blue chip well below trend. (8) Pepsi Bottling (NYSE: PBG). A modest P/E of 17XE versus 12% earnings growth makes the stock a blue-chip value.
(9) British Petroleum (NYSE: BP) is moving fast on the alternative energy front. A nice 3.4% yield and developing base versus the S&P 500 provide strong appeal. (10) Black Hills (NYSE: BKH), the conservative utility, yields 3.7% and looks bombed out versus the S&P 500.
Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG). The Street bought the recent quarterly report and pushed the stock up. Beyond some surface good news are some issues of at least temporary concern for me. (1) A weak U.S.$ is allowing export sales to show better than normally could be expected. (2) My charts on general merchandise revenues and parts and accessories revenues indicate growth rates well below earlier levels, and the trend is down. Harley’s overall momentum peaked in 1999 and will not be regained. Given what I see today, I’d like to get back into my favorite stock in the world in the mid-$50s, but I’m willing to reenter higher based on upgraded intelligence over the next few quarters. I’ll wait and see.
Sturm, Ruger‘s (NYSE: RGR) stock popped nicely after the recent quarterly earnings report. Indeed operating profits and cash flow numbers looked OK, but my interest here is a takeover. Continue to hold.
As potential beneficiaries of the luxury goods supercycle, I’ve added some new names to the Monster Master List: Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN), Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), and General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) (Gulfstream business jets).
Disciplinarian Denver Nuggets basketball coach George Karl says, “I think b-ball is overanalyzed and over-scrutinized. When it’s played the best
it’s played simple, when there is a rhythm and an intuition….”
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters, P.O. Box 1759, La Jolla, CA 92038) writes, “If one bought very conservative dividend-paying stocks and one diversified and stayed with those types of securities, the compounding tables told me that over time you had to accumulate big money. I decided to follow that path, the path of conservative compounding.”
By packaging the wisdom of Karl, Russell, and Young, you have a plan built on intuition and simplicity and your own individual rhythm. When you apply these basic rules to a strategy of patience and the power of compounding, you have a guaranteed winning hand.
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The world economy can grow at almost 5% this year and next, a rate well above U.S. growth (today, below 2%). More billionaires will be added to the Forbes list of nearly 1,000. Today, about half the billionaires are from the U.S. Russia, at #3, comes in ahead of India, China, and Brazil. I like Russia’s potential and want you to invest in the T. Rowe Price Emerging Europe & Mediterranean Fund (TREMX). Regarding China, Guy Sorman, author of The Year of the Rooster, tells us, “After spending all of 2005 and some of 2006 traveling through China, my belief is that the 21st century will not belong to the Chinese.” Laurence Brahm (South China Morning Post) reports, “Last week’s attack by chainsaw gangsters on a nature reserve in Beijing is part of an attempt to extort money from hoteliers and restaurants in the run up to the 2008 Olympics.” L.B. refers to an epoch of social breakdown. I invest in Singapore (iShares) for a play on the Chinese market. Singapore has a squeaky-clean reputation. The country is run by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (the son of independent Singapore’s founder, former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew). Mr. Lee, a former brigadier general, is a graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. And in the Far East, do not fail to get going with T. Rowe Price Japan. I love the undervalued yen and the potential for a boom in takeovers in the Japanese market. Finally, on the international front is the relatively cheap international real estate market through Fidelity International Real Estate. Make it a good month.
Warm regards,
Richard C. Young
P.S. Over the next five years, distressed securities and takeovers offer tremendous, not-soon-to-be-repeated opportunities for aggressive investors. Martin Fridson, an expert in distressed debt, pointed out in the 21 March 2007 Economist that distress can trigger forced sales of potentially valuable assets. As M.F. notes, “Buyers of some troubled American power companies have seen triple-digit gains as shares have recovered, boosted by mergers.” For complete information on Young Research’s terrific new Distressed Securities & Takeover Candidates report, go to www.IntelligenceReport.com/yrds.
P.P.S. I’m adding Grayton Beach, Florida, (white powder sand and artists mini-community near WaterColor) and Athens, Georgia, (quiet college town) to my Special Places retirement list. Check them out. The Digital Revolution rages on. I understand that Google’s contract with the University of California, Berkeley has Google digitizing 3,000 books per day. With approximately 60 million to 70 million books in existence, Google could have the total digitized by 2014. The Luxury Goods Supercycle is in full swing, and I’ve advised the home of the black and platinum cards, American Express (NYSE: AXP), as one great way to invest in the LGSC. You’ll be able to charge your really cool new Aston Martin V8 Vantage Roadster ($126,400 with manual transmission) or your ground-breaking, neck-snapping 2008 Ford Shelby GT 500 KR.
P.P.P.S. Go to my newly added platinum/silver/gold charts (#35 and #36 in Economic Analysis) to check out the long bull markets in platinum and silver versus gold. You’ll know why you want to own platinum-loaded Vanguard Precious Metals & Mining.
And go to Young Research.com for this month’s essential music. And congratulations to my long-loved Cleveland Browns with their terrific NFL draft.
Richard C. Young’s Intelligence Report® (ISSN 0884-3031) is published monthly by ACP Phillips Investment
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